For the week ending June 13, 2025
Theme of the Week: Narrative Risk in a Time of Complacent Optimism
Welcome to this week’s🚦Signal & Noise.
Markets are cruising, AI is being sold as the second coming, and inflation seems tamer (even if only cosmetically). Is it me or does the world feels deceptively stable, and that illusion is your biggest risk? I am naturally a contrarian, so maybe its me. The core message? When the story sounds too good to be true, it’s your job to edit, not echo.
If you are in the financial advisory gig, you're not here to panic clients with bearish prophecies, nor to hype them into thematic ETFs like you're pitching a startup in a WeWork bathroom. You're here to inject narrative friction at precisely the moment when everyone else is smoothing out the plot.
In short: When the vibes get too good, your job is to ask what’s not being said.
You may ask, what do I mean regarding Narrative Risk? Narrative risk is the quiet killer of long-term thinking. It's when the story clients want to believe. Why? Because it feels safe, hopeful, or just plain exciting. This is the driver of financial behavior more than the actual data or their own plan.
Think about this way:
Markets are up → Clients assume the storm is over.
AI is booming → They want more tech in the portfolio yesterday.
Inflation cooled for a month → Surely the Fed's about to pivot.
Each of those is a tidy, seductive narrative. But none of them is the whole story. And that gap…you know the distance between market noise and actual strategy is where narrative risk lives. It’s what happens when clients start acting on plotlines instead of principles.
Your job isn’t just to manage money. It’s to manage meaning. To remind clients that investing isn’t storytelling. Investing is discipline.
ON THIS DAY: The Birth of Étienne Gilson
Born on June 13, 1884, Étienne Gilson entered the world just in time to spend the 20th century rescuing the Middle Ages from centuries of bad press. Before him, most people thought medieval philosophy was just monks writing footnotes to Aristotle in candlelit gloom. Gilson, with the intellectual swagger of someone who could quote Aquinas and dismantle Descartes before breakfast, changed that.
His legacy? The audacious claim that Christian philosophy is real philosophy. In works like The Spirit of Medieval Philosophy, he argued that thinkers like Augustine, Bonaventure, and Aquinas weren’t just sermonizing with footnotes. They were doing actual philosophical work: asking the big questions about existence, truth, and being with the added twist of divine revelation.
Gilson’s genius was showing that faith and reason aren’t enemies. Faith and reason move together. happens.
So today, I raise my glass to the man who proved that medieval minds weren’t just praying; they were thinking. Hard.
Everything Feels…Fine. And That’s the Problem.
Markets are humming. Earnings reports are solid, volatility is quieter than a vegan café, and optimism is frosting on the cake.
Sounds great, right? Well. Maybe. This is when the narrative risk creeps in. When the market’s smiles get so viral, your clients treat it like its guaranteed. Investors, like many of us are plain fickle.
To my financial advisor colleagues, your job is to be the editor, not the echo chamber.
Markets Are Up. But That Story Is Too Simple.
Even though, for now, confidence is high, it is a reminder that confidence breeds complacency. Complacency is the guillotine under the guppy bowl.
It maybe a good to remind clients that the market isn't a one‑act play. No, it’s a six‑hour Broadway flop with three intermissions and a broken air conditioner.
Reality check:
Recession risk hasn't left stage left.
Rate uncertainty hasn't exited stage right.
Narrative fatigue is the prop you can’t store in the backroom.
So let the market talk. Your job is to interrupt with facts.
Yes, AI Is Everywhere. But Not a Strategy.
Clients are flooding in with questions about AI‑themed ETFs like IVES. It’s got a Twitter-ready ticker and happens to hold Nvidia, Intel, and a baker’s dozen of others. Great for exposure, yes—but it’s a trend, not a telltale.
"But AI is the future," they sigh, as though the robot uprising is going to offer tax advantages.
That’s where the real editorial value shines. Sector themes, whether its AI, EVs, space tourism—they’re glittering headlines. But when packaged as “portfolio strategy”? Cue the emotional bypass.
Let’s be honest here: chasing yesterday’s darlings is easy. Keeping clients posted on rebalancing ratios and diversification discipline? That’s advising.
Reminder to self (and client):
Just because it’s trending doesn’t mean it’s timeless.
Hype fades. Balance endures.
Inflation Is Not Done—Just Confusing.
Inflation data is giving everyone header‑itis. CPI is down, so let’s celebrate like it's 2009. Then PPI jumps, and suddenly people are asking if we’re headed to 7% inflation, All Over Again.
Here’s what they don’t hear:
Services inflation isn’t falling. You’re still paying for dry cleaning at ballooned rates.
Wage pressure hasn’t backed off. Labor is still holding the cost card.
The Fed is signaling patience, not pivot. Don’t confuse talk for action.
This is a teachable moment. Literally translate the noise. And as I have said umpteen times, when data gets confusing, your calm becomes currency.
The Advisor’s Role: Narrative Editor, Not Echo Chamber
Your alpha isn’t in a wild prediction or a hot stock pick. It’s in standing in the narrative crossfire and saying. Alpha is overhead desks with Post‑Its reminding clients it’s about cycle planning, not cycle hoping. Right now the collective brain is screaming:
Market up = no worries.
AI hot = why aren’t we all‑in tech?
Inflation down = throw confetti.
So, Where Do You Lean In?
Here’s how you sprinkle that advisor wisdom of yours into your next conversation:
Show the full narrative arc: Last year’s market corrections still echo in your clients’ dreams. This year’s highs don’t cancel that out. No, they coexist.
Sell thematic awareness, not thematic obsession: It’s fine to discuss AI ETFs. It’s another thing to let them derail allocation targets.
Translate inflation‑jargon into lived experiences: You paid WHAT for that haircut? Services inflation.
Point out the silences: The Fed might be ready to pivot, but they’re not charging in with lambs and doves just yet.
Reinforce cycle‑based trust: We prepared for this. Now we stay the course.
The Unfiltered Truth
We live in a world starved for headline simplicity. Come at it with nuance. Serve your clients the full story. Why? Because when the narrative gets messy, that’s when your role becomes indispensable. So yes, the market is up. AI is hot. Inflation is confusing. But when the katana’s all shiny and seductive, your clearest value isn’t in stroke‑of‑genius stock picks. It’s in discipline. In context. In your willingness to say: “Not so fast.”
That’s a Wrap
Until next week, keep it sharp, keep it skeptical, and never forget: When everyone’s chasing the narrative, your value is cutting through it.
Have a great week. May the Ohio Cicadas die an early death.
Lawain
P.S. If you enjoy reading 🚦Signal & Noise, spread the chaos and wisdom with your friends, a frenemy, or that coworker who thinks the market is just vibes. If you enjoy the ride and want to support the madness, we salute you. It’s just $100/year or a measly $9.99/month. What a bargain.
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