🚦Signal & Noise

Wall Street Reboots, Fed Theater, and Dollar Store Nirvana

Jun 20, 2025

For the week ending June 20, 2025

Theme of the Week: Wall Street Reboots, Fed Theater, and Dollar Store Nirvana

Welcome to this week’s🚦Signal & Noise.

This week, I'm experimenting with a shorter 🚦Signal & Noise format. Fewer words, sharper teeth. The goal: more brevity, more punch, and a lot less patience for Wall Street's recycled nonsense.

If you've ever wondered what Wall Street and Hollywood have in common, here it is: neither has had an original idea in 30 years.

Wall Street's idea of creativity? Predicting the market will go up unless it goes down. CNBC should just put ChatGPT in a bad suit and let it predict “volatility with upside risk” on repeat. Meanwhile, every financial pundit parrots the same three tropes: buy the dip, fear the Fed, and pretend that every rally is “unexpected.”

And yet—miraculously—the markets continue to do what they’ve always done: go up over time. If you're sitting on the sidelines because you read one too many doomposts, congratulations. You're not cautious. You're just late.

ON THIS DAY: Mary, Queen of Scots and the Casket Letters (1567)

The infamous Casket Letters surfaced—supposedly implicating Mary, Queen of Scots, in the murder of her husband. Whether they were forged or not didn’t matter—perception drove the outcome. Scotland descended into political chaos, and Mary’s reign unraveled.

Lesson for investors? Narratives matter. Whether it's Fed statements or trade talk, markets move on perception more than proof. So unless you’re holding your own casket of incriminating rate predictions, maybe don’t bet the throne on a headline.

Trade Tensions Cool—The Market Does What It Wants Anyway

This week brought calming words from the U.S. and China, and like a toddler soothed by a juice box, the market rallied. Again.

Did this rally follow any brilliant forecasts from Wall Street? Of course not. The same people who had the S&P either plummeting or “flatlining under pressure” are now revising their targets faster than you can say “AI productivity gains.”

Here’s the inconvenient truth: the market doesn’t care about your forecast. It’s not a lab experiment. It’s more like that one friend who shows up late, eats all the shrimp cocktail, and still leaves richer than everyone else.

If you’re not in the market, you’re not waiting it out—you’re getting left behind. Sit on the sidelines long enough, and you'll miss more than the downturn—you’ll miss the bounce back, the run-up, and the compounding that matters.

The Fed Held Rates Steady—Try to Pretend You Care

The Federal Reserve did exactly what most expected: nothing. Rates remain where they are. Jerome Powell gave his usual solemn TED Talk about “watching the data,” which is economist-speak for “please stop asking us.”

Here’s the kicker: research from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) shows that short-term and long-term rates don’t even move in tandem. In other words, that Fed move you’re obsessing over? It might impact one part of the curve while the other naps.

Read Fed Forecasting Utility HERE.

Markets aren’t Pavlovian dogs. The Fed doesn’t have a remote control. And frankly, the Fed doesn’t care about your portfolio. Neither should you.

Advice? Tune out the Fed drama. Invest through the noise. Let Powell talk to himself.

Dollar General: Recession Hedge & Gum Nirvana

Dollar General crushed earnings again. Why wouldn't they? In an economy where a cucumber costs more than a gallon of gas, Americans are rediscovering the genius of budget retail.

And look, I’ll say it: I am a proud Dollar Store shopper. Where else can you buy Airheads Blue Raspberry Gum for $1.25 a pack, snag a 12-pack of those magical white cleaning sponges, and walk out feeling like a baller on a budget?

Don’t hate the Dollar Store. Love the Dollar Store. It’s like a flea market and a rummage sale had a baby—and that baby now owns a profitable, inflation-proof supply chain.

Here’s what the numbers said: DG beat earnings, raised guidance, and reminded Wall Street that value never goes out of style.

If you’re an index investor, good news—you’re already exposed to consumer staples like DG. That means you’re quietly hedging against recession without even trying. You're welcome.

That’s a Wrap

Financial pundits are like bad reboots—loud, predictable, and still somehow getting airtime. The market doesn’t care. The Fed doesn’t care. And honestly? You shouldn’t either.

So shut the browser tab. Put down the prediction porn. Go take a walk. Your portfolio will thank you for leaving it alone.

And hey, if you happen to pass a Dollar Store…grab the gum. You’re already an investor in value. Might as well enjoy it.

Lawain

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