For the week ending June 6, 2025
Theme of the Week: Crisis as Currency
This week’s 🚦Signal & Noise exposes a common thread weaving through Wall Street, corporate America, and consumer behavior: crisis isn't just weathered, it's monetized. From private equity's inertia masquerading as patience, to Procter & Gamble's euphemism-laden purge, and the collective retreat of consumers into savings accounts, everyone is reacting to uncertainty by rebranding it as innovation, strategy, or wisdom.
The markets are twitchy, the balance sheets are wobbly, and the executive memos read like rejected Black Mirror scripts. Yet instead of genuine transformation, we see old tactics with new buzzwords. Yes, that’s right bucko…its SPIN, STALL, and PRAY.
The chaos isn't accidental. It's the product. And this week, we're following the money trail through the smoke.
Please spread the chaos and wisdom of 🚦Signal & Noise to a friend, a frenemy, or that coworker who thinks the market is just vibes. If you enjoy the ride and want to support the madness, we salute you. It’s just $100/year or a measly $9.99/month.
ON THIS DAY: June 6, 1944
D-Day, June 6, 1944: the largest amphibious invasion in history and the beginning of the end for Nazi Germany. Over 156,000 Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy in a meticulously planned operation that redefined international cooperation and collective courage. From the beaches of Normandy to the boardrooms of New York, this week’s battles are less heroic, more spreadsheet-driven.
Private Equity’s Midyear Slump: When “Dry Powder” Becomes Dead Weight
Remember the private equity “upturn” that was supposed to save the industry from its post-pandemic malaise? Blink and you missed it. The second quarter of 2025 has arrived with all the excitement of a wet firecracker, as buyout activity is projected to nosedive by 16% compared to Q1. If you thought private equity was immune to the chaos swirling through global markets, think again—tariff tantrums, macro muddle, and a parade of canceled IPOs have left dealmakers staring at their Bloomberg terminals like widowed debutantes at a dry wedding, praying for a liquidity miracle.
From Euphoria to Ennui—Fast
Let’s recap: Q1 was the industry’s sugar high. Credit was cheap, inflation was “under control” (ha!), and interest rates were finally trending down. Deal value soared to $189 billion, nearly double the previous year and the highest since 2022. For a fleeting moment, private equity looked like it might actually justify its existence.
Then April hit. Tariff announcements sent markets into a tailspin, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones suffering their worst two-day loss in history. Suddenly, the only thing moving faster than deal value was the exodus from the IPO market, as portfolio companies postponed or canceled offerings en masse. The value of buyout deals in April alone was 24% below the Q1 monthly average, and deal count plummeted 22%. So much for that upturn.
The Great Liquidity Mirage
Meanwhile, private equity’s vaunted “dry powder”—$1.2 trillion of it—now looks more like a liability than an asset. Nearly a quarter of that capital has been gathering dust for four years or more, and general partners (GPs) are under mounting pressure to put money to work. But with exits grinding to a halt and fundraising in freefall (five straight quarters of decline and counting), the industry is discovering that sitting on a mountain of cash is cold comfort when nobody wants to sell—or buy—at today’s prices.
Limited partners (LPs), tired of waiting for their money back, are stampeding into the secondaries market in hopes of clawing back some liquidity. Too bad the secondaries market still accounts for less than 5% of global private equity assets—hardly enough to bail out a sector awash in unsold, aging portfolio companies.
The New Playbook: Spin, Stall, and Pray
What’s the industry’s response to this mess? More innovative dealmaking, more due diligence, and a newfound obsession with generative AI—because nothing says “value creation” like slapping a chatbot on a portfolio company’s website. GPs are also dusting off continuation vehicles (the financial equivalent of a sitcom spinoff nobody asked for) to avoid actually selling anything, while LPs are left to wonder if their capital will ever see daylight again.
The reality is that private equity is being forced to confront a world where the old tricks like cheap debt, easy exits, and endless fundraising no longer work. The foundational assumptions that guided strategies just months ago are now as outdated as last year’s term sheets.
Winners, Losers, and the Rest
Of course, the industry’s cheerleaders insist that “nothing is fundamentally broken” and that “winners will emerge from the chaos.” Maybe. But for now, the only thing private equity seems to be winning is a gold medal in inertia.
Private Equity=Smart Money???
Private equity once promised to be the smart money in every cycle. In 2025, it’s looking more like the patient on life support, waiting for the next Fed announcement or trade deal to jolt it awake. Until then, expect more hand-wringing, more PowerPoint decks, and a lot less dealmaking.
“In any disruption there are winners and losers – and the best opportunities often come at the most extreme moments of uncertainty, something that’s still true in 2025.” – Hugh MacArthur, Bain & Company
But don’t hold your breath.
“We don’t see this as a crisis—we see it as an exciting opportunity to gaslight our stakeholders while downsizing their expectations.”
—Blake Q., SVP of Strategic Turbulence, MetaGeneral Partners
FYI - this is a fake quote (and I can’t stop laughing)
Procter & Gamble’s “Efficiency” Drive: When Corporate Spin Meets the Pink Slip
Procter & Gamble, the self-appointed steward of American cleanliness and comfort, has decided it’s time to “streamline.” Translation: 7,000 non-manufacturing employees—roughly 15% of the company’s white-collar workforce—will soon be updating their résumés and discovering the joys of LinkedIn networking. Why? Because when you miss sales targets and your financial outlook goes from “steady as she goes” to “brace for impact,” someone has to pay. Spoiler: it’s not the C-suite.
Missed Sales, Missed Targets, Missed Opportunities
Let’s not sugarcoat it. P&G’s North American sales growth has slowed to a crawl—a mere 1% organic uptick in the last quarter, despite the company’s best efforts to squeeze more out of every bottle of Tide and box of Pampers. The culprit? Consumers, apparently, have “hit pause,” choosing to do fewer loads of laundry and stretch their toothpaste a little further as tariffs and inflation eat away at their wallets.
But don’t worry, executives assure us, this isn’t about cost-cutting. No, it’s about “making work more fulfilling, faster and more efficient, leveraging digitization and automation opportunities.” Because nothing says “fulfilling” quite like a surprise layoff and a corporate platitude about “smaller teams with broader responsibilities.”
Tariffs, Tumbling Forecasts, and the $1.6 Billion Band-Aid
Of course, P&G is quick to point the finger at President Trump’s tariffs, which have turned supply chains into obstacle courses and forced price hikes on everything from razors to dish soap. The company expects these tariffs to carve $600 million out of next year’s profits and has already slashed its full-year sales and earnings forecasts—again.
The solution? A restructuring program with a price tag of up to $1.6 billion, including the cost of offloading some underperforming brands and possibly exiting entire markets. Investors, naturally, are thrilled: the stock is down 2% year-to-date, lagging the S&P 500, but hey, at least the dividend is safe (for now).
The “Agility” Myth
P&G’s leadership is spinning this as a bold leap into the future, promising “an even more agile, empowered, and accountable organization design.” Translation: more work for fewer people, as digitization and automation take center stage. The company’s vision of “broader roles and smaller teams” sounds suspiciously like “do twice the work with half the staff.”
And let’s not forget the “portfolio optimization.” This is corporate speak for dumping brands that can’t keep up and hoping nobody notices until the next earnings call.
The Broader Picture: Corporate America’s Favorite Playbook
P&G is hardly alone. From Microsoft to Starbucks, mass layoffs have become the go-to move for companies facing the one-two punch of rising costs and consumer belt-tightening. But let’s be clear: this isn’t innovation, it’s desperation wrapped in a press release.
My 2 Cents
In the end, Procter & Gamble’s “restructuring” is just another round of corporate musical chairs, with 7,000 employees left standing when the music stops. The company will tout “efficiency” and “focus,” but for the people on the receiving end of those pink slips, it’s just business as usual in the age of shareholder primacy.
“We see more opportunities to make growth broader and teams smaller, making work more fulfilling, faster and more efficient, leveraging digitization and automation opportunities.” — P&G CFO Andre Schulten, apparently forgetting that “opportunity” is cold comfort when you’re out of a job.
Now hiring: Brand Synergies Evangelist. Must love AI, hate job security.
Revenge Saving: Americans Swap Splurging for Squirreling as Economic Whiplash Hits Home
Remember “revenge spending”—that glorious post-pandemic spree where Americans bought everything short of a second moon landing? Well, the hangover has arrived, and it’s called “revenge saving.” Yes, after years of burning through cash like a TikTok influencer with a new sponsorship, Americans are now clutching their wallets with the fervor of a doomsday prepper at a canned food sale.
From YOLO to YODO: You Only Deposit Once
The numbers don’t lie: the U.S. personal savings rate jumped to 4.9% in April, up from 4.1% in January. That’s a 13.95% leap in just a few months, and while it’s still a far cry from the long-term average of 8.41%, it’s enough to make the nation’s retailers break out in a cold sweat. Turns out, after a few years of “treat yourself” mania, Americans are rediscovering the ancient art of not spending every last dime.
Why the sudden shift? Economic uncertainty is the new national pastime. With tariffs ricocheting like a pinball, inflation gnawing at paychecks, and the stock market doing its best impression of a rollercoaster designed by a sadist, consumers are finally listening to that little voice in their heads whispering, “Maybe don’t buy the $9 latte today.”
The Great Financial Detox
It’s not just the numbers. Real people are feeling the squeeze. Surveys show nearly 60% of Americans have revised their savings goals, with 45% boosting their emergency funds and a growing number socking away cash for retirement and “just in case” scenarios. The message is clear: after years of FOMO-fueled splurging, the new status symbol is a fat savings account.
Even employers are getting in on the act, with more workers joining workplace emergency savings programs—because nothing says “fun at the office” like prepping for financial Armageddon. Meanwhile, the typical springtime bump in savings from tax refunds isn’t fading away as fast as usual. Instead, Americans are actually holding onto those refunds, not rushing out to buy the latest gadget or book that overpriced vacation.
Retailers, Meet Your New Worst Enemy: Prudence
Retailers and the “experience economy” are learning the hard way that the American consumer’s love affair with spending is officially on a break. Brand loyalty? Out the window. Big purchases? Delayed. That new car, fancy dinner, or designer handbag? Maybe next year, if the world hasn’t ended by then. The only “impulse buy” these days is an extra roll of toilet paper. Just in case.
Experts are now urging clients to build emergency funds that can cover six to twelve months of expenses—because the average length of unemployment is creeping up, and nobody wants to be caught with their financial pants down.
Final Thought
So here we are: “revenge saving” is in, reckless spending is out, and the only thing hotter than a summer sale is a padded emergency fund. The American consumer has gone from YOLO to “YODO”—You Only Deposit Once.
Retailers, take note: the party’s over. The new American pastime is watching the savings account grow—and for once, nobody’s complaining about missing out.
That’s a Wrap
And that’s a wrap on another week where financial headlines were almost as hard to digest as a Tide Pod, a crypto white paper, or the concept of “quiet quitting” explained by someone who’s never had a real job.
Instead, savor the sweet taste of revenge saving, chew over your diversified portfolio, and wash down the week’s news with a healthy dose of skepticism. Stay fresh, stay smart, and keep your investing decisions strictly soap-free. See you next week. No laundry detergent required!
Lawain
P.S. Take a long walk this weekend. It will do the mind and body good.
Sources for this weeks 🚦Signal & Noise
Bain & Company, "Private equity upturn hit by tariff turmoil, but winning firms will lean in," PRNewswire via Yahoo Finance, June 2, 2025.
InvestmentNews, "Private equity dealmaking was building momentum in Q1, then came tariffs," June 2, 2025.
CNBC, "Dealmaking activity shows Trump tariffs derailed a budding M&A boom," May 22, 2025.
Zawya, "Global private equity dealmaking slows down amid headwinds," June 3, 2025.
Bain & Company, "Private Equity Outlook 2025: Is a Recovery Starting to Take Shape?" March 3, 2025.
Investopedia, "Procter & Gamble to Lay Off 7,000 in Restructuring Effort," June 5, 2025.
CNBC, "Procter & Gamble to cut 7000 jobs as part of broader restructuring," June 5, 2025.
The New York Times, "Procter & Gamble to Cut 7,000 Jobs Amid Tariff Uncertainty," June 5, 2025.
CBS News, "Procter & Gamble says it will cut 7,000 jobs over the next 2 years," June 5, 2025.
YCharts, "US Personal Saving Rate Monthly Analysis," June 4, 2025.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025," June 2025.
MarketWatch, "Americans are 'revenge saving' after years of splurging," June 2, 2025.
Capital Advisors, "What Dwindling Excess Savings Means for The Consumer," May 28, 2024.
CNBC, "China's young are 'revenge saving' even as other Gen Zers pile up debt," July 1, 2024.
Fidelity Investments via CNBC, "Average 401(k) balances drop 3% due to market volatility, Fidelity says," June 4, 2025.
Copyright, Disclosure, and Disclaimer Statement
© 2025, Mission Surrender, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
🚦Signal & Noise is the intellectual property of Mission Surrender, LLC. No part of this publication may be copied, reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations used in reviews, academic citations, or personal reference.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of any organization, institution, or entity. Every effort has been made to ensure that the information presented is accurate, well-sourced, and properly attributed. However, if any misstatements, misquotes, or missing attributions are identified, please notify the author, and corrections will be made accordingly. Some articles is curated from multiple sources, and any omission of references is unintentional. The content is intended for informational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as professional, financial, legal, or theological advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult appropriate experts before making decisions based on the material provided. By reading this article, you acknowledge that the author and publisher are not responsible for any inaccuracies, interpretations, or consequences that may arise from the use of this content.
This material is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Personal use is permitted; however, commercial use (such as repackaging, reselling, or incorporating this content into paid products, courses, coaching programs, or publications) is strictly prohibited without explicit written consent. Licensing options are available for organizations, publishers, or businesses that wish to distribute or adapt these materials. Please contact lawain@lawainmcneil.com for licensing inquiries.